Presto! 9.4% Unemployment! How The Government Lies.

Written by Silver Shield from Don't Tread on Me


That is exactly what the elite would have us believe with the 9.4%
unemployment number in this huge CONfidence game otherwise known as the
USEconomy.

“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” -George Orwell

We were having dinner at my in-law’s house and I had overheard the
TV playing in the back ground.  At one point, I thought I had heard the
squealing of teenagers who were fawning over Justin Beiber.   Instead,
it turned out that it was someone on the news reporting the new,  much
lower 9.4% unemployment rate.  I could hear the panting of excitement
spoken by the breathless reporters who were interviewing very serious
economists about this new 9.4% rate.  The news aired their personal
interest piece about a girl who was just hired at an internet company.
She commented with the utmost confidence that the economy was getting
better!!   You have all heard that saying, “it is a recession when your
neighbor loses a job, but when you lose a job it is a depression.”

Well, according to her, we are out of her depression.

But alas, this is all a dream and the media is using their very
best, tried and true propaganda to keep the people from getting too
upset with reality.  Let me just state that the real rate of
unemployment is much, much more than the 9.4% and if the government
really reported what was really going on, there would be
revolution in the morning.  Allow me to destroy this fictional 9.4%
number and the billion dollar propaganda machine that provides cover
for the trillion dollar banking and government schemes.   I will accomplish this magical feat with writing a blog post in my pajamas.  That is real magic!


“There are three types of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.” -Mark Twain.

The first thing we need to understand is the birth/death model. 
It is an estimate/lie that the Bureau of Labor Statistics starts with
to figure out how many jobs small companies have created.

Since so many jobs in this country are created by small companies,
they pull numbers out of a hat to start with.  This is a total guess
that constantly gets manipulated to hide the truth.  Literally 250,000
jobs can be created out of thin air.


The rest of the number is determined from a survey.  The BLS’s number
showed an overall increase of +103,000 jobs.(Can you hear my sarcastic
Whoopie!?) The economy needs to create 250,000 a month just to keep up
with the growth of the population.   A household survey showed an
increase of +297,000 jobs and -260,000 fewer people in the labor force. 
This combined into a drop of 9.8% to 9.4%.

The majority of those jobs are all of those “awesome” seasonal jobs
during the Christmas season that will be going away now that we are in
the new year.  This little bump happens every year and is touted as a
great development.  Actually, it is sad that in our consumer economy,
we have to hire part-time workers to handle the hoards of debt slaves
as they spend their way into oblivion.  I wish it was seasonal work at a
factory like hiring a third shift at a plant actually producing
something.   Moving on…

The next big thing we need to understand is the labor force participation rate.
It reflects people between the ages of 18-64 years old, who are
actually working or looking for work.  This does not include students,
moms, retired, and now more importantly people not even looking for
jobs.  The decline in the labor participation rate is becoming a cancer
as people have been unemployed for a long time and entire industries
are gone for good.  The labor participation rate is usually around
67-68%, but has just reached a fresh 25 year low of 64.4%.  This means
on average, the unemployment numbers are lowered by 2.6-3.6% simply
because the eligible pool is dropping.

We
have now heard of the 99ers.  They are people at the end of their 99
week of unemployment benefits/hush money.  Well let’s get into our
little time machine and travel back 99 weeks ago.  That would have been
smack dab in the middle of the 2008 financial crisis that set off this
huge mess.  So people who still have not found a job since the economy
turned for the worst in 2008 do not count.  We know
that the crisis may have started two years ago but the firings did not
happen right away as people tried to hang on.  We can expect this
decline in the labor participation rate for sometime, hiding some of
the pain out there.

The
government does keep track of these discouraged workers in another
unemployment number. ( Although they do not have their minions in the
press shout it from the top of their lungs.)  The U-6 number measures
the 9.4% unemployed number from above plus short term
discouraged workers and people working part time because they cannot
find suitable employment.  This underemployment rate the government
admits to is 19%.  Wow, that is a much scarier number but like the
commercials say, “but wait, there’s more!”   If you added in long term discouraged workers that the government dropped from their number in 1994, you would have close to 25% unemployment.

25% unemployment should be torches and pitch fork numbers. We have been so thoroughly enslaved that people are more excited about American ‘Idle’

The unemployment nightmare does not stop there.  What about all of
those good paying jobs that are gone forever like in finance, housing,
manufacturing, etc.?  If you lose a $100k job in one of those industries
and you get the only job you can working at Costco of $25k a year, then
you are employed according to the unemployment number.  What is not
shown, is the quality of the jobs that are out there.  When you see
5,000 people applying for an $8 an hour job at Walmart, something is
seriously wrong.

Another factor you will not hear in the main stream media is how many of the jobs that are out there are government jobs.  Nationally, if you include federal, state and local workers, the Government employs 17% of the work force. 
This growth in government jobs is hiding probably another 8-10%.  Now I
do not need to go into the fact that economically these workers provide
very little to the overall economy.  Right now there are more people in
the government than in the manufacturing economy.

“Yeah, but government jobs are “good paying jobs.”  The government produces nothing

and its only source of income is the productive efforts of those in the
real world, like you.  The real sick thing is an average government
employee makes again on average, when you include their benefits, TWICE of what the average civilian makes.  This is an unsustainable situation, to say the least.

Here’s another factor that is hidden from you.  What about all of
those companies and industries that received  government contracts or
even worse, got bailed out through the government largesse?  How many of
the private sector jobs were as a result of more government spending?

So let’s break this down.

If we added to the official 9.4% unemployment rate to all of the short and long term
discouraged unemployed, the underemployed, the retired, the moms, the
babies, the government workers, the bailed out industries, the heavily
subsidized farmers, the private government contractors, etc.,  we are
just left with you and me that provide anything of value in
this country.  Since I am in my pajamas and on my second cup of coffee, I
think we can even rule me out.

So get back to work!

The world’s paper ponzi scheme depends on you depends on you. 

Food Stamp Usage Hits a New High at 43.2 Million

So as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program is increasing in correlation to U-6, the dire straits of our economic situation become painstakingly clear. It is important to remember that the right-left paradigm is false when observing entitlement issues due to the 'divide and conquer' mentality displayed by the elite. First, lets set aside arguments over entitlements and whether individuals should or should not be given government assistance so that we can take in the heaviness of our economic predicament. Nearly doubling from ~4 years ago, the amount of people on food stamps is at its highest number ever at 43.2 million. This is staggering, and it means that these individuals are either unemployed or underemployed to the extent that they need direct monetary aid just to subsist. These people need help due to the economic ponzi scheme we have all been subject to. Through manipulative boom-bust economic strategies, where our rulers profit on both the bubbling up and the implosion of the malinvestment, over 14% of the US population have very little means to afford basic food necessities. These people MUST get food from SOMEWHERE.

Now, I have no doubt that in terms of overall efficiency in supplying direct aid for 'nutrition,' having a personal card to swipe makes spending easy for those on the program. (Especially when most fast food chains will gladly take your subsidized govt' fiat.) But if we delve into where the money from SNAP actually goes, we can see that the largest food corporations benefit from the spending of taxpayer money. Opportunity costs must be taken into consideration.

How many burgers could a family buy at (twin golden arches) for $20- or how much junk food, GMO-chemical-marinated-processed food product could be purchased, and what companies does that money flow to for the average grocery shopper? - now also consider the amount of food a family of four could get when spending $20 at a local farmers' market (granted, one cooking requires more ingredients than a typical farmers market could provide). The overall local economic benefit is no comparison. Clearly, the family would have more quality foods at the farmers market than from either the fast food chain, or processed food items in a grocery store. support local farming entrepreneurs and keeping that money circulating locally can increase local wealth and the economy.

With this said, the issue of our government using my tax dollars to help the needy sits much better on my stomach than spending money for defense or bailing out some elite-thug on wall street-- and besides the fact that the federal reserve over monetary expansion and contraction processes causes the poverty to begin with -- coercing those on food stamps to only spend at designated sources ensures that the governments corporate cronies ultimately increase profit revenues from the misfortune of our populace. This also means that individuals who receive help will be much more likely to psychologically support the hand that feeds them...

I feel that utilizing churches for providing meals and canned food items along with supporting food-bank charity and good 'ol fashioned farm-work for food may be a necessary step to further extend a loving hand to these people in need. Giving away tax-payer money to an ever increasing percentage of the population just for subsistance is quite obviously not a sustainable solution. A 'solution' would involve a complete restructuring of our economic society, but the powers that be will ensure an utter collapse before the current 'extend and pretend' status quo is eliminated.


Anyway, the chart speaks for itself.

Kymatica

George Soros Openly Discusses the New World Order

Mike Krieger Explains How to Short Corruption in 2011

written by Mike Krieger of KAM LP

How to Short Corruption in 2011

Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you.
- Attributed to Pericles, ca 430 BC
 
Suspicion towards a currency, once awaken, develops insomnia.
- James Dines

 

Addressing the Commodity Chatter

In the waning days of 2010 and the first week of 2011 it seems everyone under the sun has decided to weigh in on commodities general and gold specifically.  Although I disagree with the conclusion of many of these notes, several of them are very well thought out and bring up excellent points of debate.  I will address one note in particular in this email and others possibly in the future.
 
Dylan Grice of Societe General is in my opinion one of the best big picture guys on the sell-side today.  I find him to be intellectually honest and someone with a deep sense of human history, which is the crucial component of any successful analysis of global macro trends.  History is in effect an intricate model of human nature.  Since human being are the components of both civilizations and markets, what ultimately drives the big dynamic shifts that change the world forever is human nature itself.  In the period that we are told is the whole of civilized human history (I have serious doubts about this but that is for another time), human nature has clearly not changed although our toys and weaponry have.  All you have to do is study history to see this.  If you don’t understand human nature or and the intricate but volatile web of events we call history you have no business being a macro investor.
 
Ok, so back to the Grice piece.  In his Popular Delusions piece from December 15, 2010 he talks about how commodities are a horrible investment in the long-run and that you are much better investing in growing businesses.  I am not going to argue with him here although I just want to make two points.  First, is commodities have powerful secular bull markets and having exposure to this asset class is absolutely crucial to a macro investor such as myself that plays these big secular trends.  I have not succumbed to a delusional love affair with this asset nor am I buying into some long-term Malthusian nightmare.  At some stage investors will get this way (it happened in 2H08), commodities will rise to far too fast, and it will be time to get out.  The attitude toward commodities in early 2011 is nothing like it was in 1H08.  It is much more restrained and in fact more investors like equities than commodities today.  I was there in 1H08.  I called it a bubble then.  I have a track record.  This is not 2H08 from a sentiment perspective.  This run has a long way to go in certain commodities (precious metals, agriculture and oil) from where I sit.  A long way.
 
The more important point Grice makes is one I am hearing repeated by parrots on television that don’t have half the brain power or understanding of Grice.  As such, I want to address this point of view once and for all.  In his note Grice writes:

When you buy commodities, you’re selling human ingenuity. Why bet against human ingenuity by buying physical commodities when you can bet on it by investing in the enterprises whose task is to remove the bottlenecks and lower commodity prices? As a strategy, this is something I will focus on in later notes. I think there are more efficient ways to gain exposure to commodity markets and I will write in more detail about them after Christmas.

While I think this statement on its face it correct, it is misleading and subject to poor interpretation by the weak minded.  Yes, it is true that when you put capital into commodities you are betting against human ingenuity, but human ingenuity can be stifled by outside factors such as government and corruption.  So in buying commodities, and precious metals in particular, I am in fact betting against real GDP growth and human ingenuity…in the SHORT-RUN (this can be described as several years or more when you look at markets from a truly long-term perspective as I do).  Longer-term a bet against human ingenuity has been a disastrous bet and I believe it will be again.  Nevertheless, the state of corruption and incompetence embedded within the current leaders of the United States and the Western World in general (and our Asian soft-colonies) is of such a magnitude that they are stifling human nature, its ability and desire to innovate and yes, ingenuity itself.
 
Shorting Corruption in 2011

While many will say I am a perma bear and just see everything as half full, I cannot wait until the day that I can sell all of my precious metals and commodity exposure and start to invest in non-mining and commodity businesses and equities generally.  I have no doubt that this day will come but this is all a process and we are very, very far away from that day from a price perspective.  A large part of my intent in writing these notes is to catalyze the change so that it happens as quickly as possible.  The quicker we can change the guard within the elite class on Wall Street and Washington the quicker we can get on with human ingenuity.
 
Very early on I noticed that what Aldous Huxley and others have called the “power elite” have almost total political and economic control of the system.  Remember the quote attributed to Mayer Rothschild over two hundred years ago that perfectly and simply states:  “Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws.” Combine this quote with Lord Acton’s: “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men” and you can start to really put all the pieces together on how money power works and how it has taken the entire world hostage to its selfish ends.
 
The founding fathers of the United States of America were very well aware of this aspect of human nature when they framed the constitution which is why they made money gold and silver coin and also why they were obsessed with the idea of a division of powers between the executive, legislative and judicial branches.  It is also why states rights was such as big issue.  Unfortunately, what we have today is almost the worst case scenario.  While under a gold standard the politicians will cheat and print and then default (like the United States did in 1971) at least there is the legal framework of moral money during that period.  Under a completely fiat system where money can be created to infinity and that power is granted to a small group of unelected academics (the Fed) that answer to the banks...well you get what we have today.  A society where all the wealth has become concentrated in the hands of a very small, corrupt and unenlightened elite.  Once their greed has collapsed the system they then scramble to secure their positions using their political connections (see the period from 2008-today) and in the process destroy the middle class.  To protect themselves from the “people” they then try to put in a police state or a more authoritarian government.  This has happened over and over and over in history and is happening again right now.  This is pre-1789 France make no mistake about it.
 
So when the masses of a formerly free people figure out what has happened to them it is not pretty.  My whole hope is to avoid the masses turning violent.  There is no need for it.  The system has an Achilles heel and it is precious metals.  People must become educated on money power, how it works and then use the system against itself.  The entire power of the elite resides in fiat money creation.  Buy physical gold and silver and take delivery if you want to short corruption in 2011.  Take that away and they go away.  Enter human ingenuity.   
 
George Soros and the New World Order

Many people hear the term “New World Order” and immediately shut down.  They think conspiracy theory.  The truth is this is a term the elite themselves use all the time in describing what they want (see Soros interview here).  What we have the is second worst possible outcome in the U.S. dollar currency system.  The absolute WORST outcome for humanity and freedom is the New World Order outcome, which in a nutshell is a global government and a one world currency.  Think about it.  It is bad enough to have the U.S. fiat dollar but at least you can flee to another nation.  If there is one currency that must be used everywhere and it is managed by some power hungry maniac in Brussels what kind of world do you think that will be like?  I’d rather not.
 
I personally think there will be no New World Order because people are waking up and becoming educated on how things work and they are doing it fast.  The smartest of the elite are in their old age and we will be rid of them soon enough thanks to natural causes.  My observation of their progeny is that they are much less intelligent, motivated and forward thinking than their ancestors.  I can’t wait until the day I don’t have to listen to the dangerous fantasies about how civilizations should function from the like of George Soros or Warren Buffet.  You guys had your day.  Go away please you have done enough to ruin the future of my generation.
 
All the best as always,
Mike

Tyler Durden: Gallup Finds Unemployment Increased In December, Underemployment Is At 6 Month High, Blasts Government Data Fudging

Here is a great post from Zero Hedge today, where Gallup provides a more accurate view of the economy rather than the "seasonally adjusted" statistics of the Federal Govt. BLS reaches conclusions that are quite obviously data manipulations, destined to be long forgotten by the time they are revised. Here are some excerpts of the piece:

Gallup has found that not only did the unemployment rate increase in December from 9.4% to 9.6%, that disgruntled part-time workers who want full-time work increased from 8.6% to 9.4%, the highest since September, but that the most important metric in a labor force increasingly consisting of part-time workers, underemployment, has surged to 19%, the highest since June!

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.6% at the end of December -- up from 9.3% in mid-December and 8.8% at the end of November.

Whatever the government reports about unemployment on Friday, Gallup's U.S. underemployment data for the end of 2010 show that nearly one in five Americans continue to be unemployed or employed part-time looking for full-time work. In turn, this underscores the importance of job creation as a top national priority.

It is therefore too bad the top national priority is and continues to be manipulating stock markets, and creating a wealth effect for some and a poverty effect for most.

The Gallup Data:



Full Zero Hedge Article

Why the World Is Financially Doomed in Four Charts

written by Charles Hugh Smith - repost from Of Two Minds

Why the World Is Financially Doomed in Four Charts

The global economy is doomed to implosion, and here are four charts which explain why.

Though the complexities may appear endless, the global economy's coming implosion is really fairly easy to understand: here are four charts which do the heavy lifting. It boils down to these basics:

1. When money is dear and difficult to borrow, then productivity and capital accumulation are encouraged, speculation, malinvestment and debt-based consumption are discouraged.

2. When money is "free" (zero-interest rate policy) and liquidity is unlimited, then the opposite conditions hold: speculation in risk assets, malinvestment and debt-based consumption are all encouraged, and productivity and capital accumulation are heavily discouraged.

3. When debts exceed the value of the underlying assets, the only way out of the Tyranny of Debt is to write off the debt on both the borrower and lender's balance sheets, wiping out their capital via liquidation and bankruptcy.

4. The "extend and pretend" policy pursued by all major nations is simply transferring the impaired debt from private hands to the taxpayers (public debt), crippling the economy with higher taxes and higher debt service.

5. The Central State's "extend and pretend" policy requires heavy borrowing every year to prop up the status quo, pushing the Central State (or equivalent, i.e. the Eurozone) into an inescapable double-bind: either continue increasing public debt and cripple the economy with high taxes and high public-debt servicing costs, or let the financial status quo of "profits are private, losses are public" implode.

The first path leads to default, as the Tyranny of Debt cannot be masked for long, while the second path wipes out the Financial Power Elite which feeds the politicians.

Here are the charts. Note how the speculative economy created the illusion of rising wealth for the bottom 90%, an illusion stripped away by the Default Economy.

In essence, the Financial Power Elites profited immensely from creating this illusory wealth which gave the bottom 90% the false sensation that their declining earnings and purchasing power were being offset by the "magic" of asset bubbles.

Then, when the bubble popped, the Financial Power Elites transferred the impaired assets to the taxpayers, a process which is still underway. The politicos of both parties are complicit; behind the simulacra of toothless "reforms," this process proceeds in myriad ways (Bank of America transferring toxic debt to Fannie/Freddie, etc.) Behind the smokescreen of conjuring a "wealth effect" to foster more consumption, the Fed's purchase of Treasuries (QE2) serves this transfer-of-debt-to-the-public process.

This same process is playing out throughout the global economy: Greece, Ireland, the U.S., and eventually, in China when its monumental property bubble pops.